To live in constant dread of America is a waste of time

Why is nearly everyone in India who has anything to do with America in a state of permanent worry?

The Foreign Ministry wakes up each morning hoping that President Donald Trump has not said anything false or insulting about India.

 

Businessmen agonise about the levels of tariffs and whether they will be raised further. Elderly parents who are proud of the good jobs their children have secured in the US now fear that their kids will have to return to India because their visas will be revoked. Anyone who has to go to the US for work, vacation or to see family is terrified by the immigration process even if they are only applying for short term visas.

 

   There is only one explanation for the change in mood and the transformation of the environment: Donald J Trump.

 

   To understand why the change in the US’s attitude towards India has come as such a seismic shock, you need to understand a little bit about the background.

 

   When India became independent in 1947, the US wished us well and later, offered alliances. We refused to join the alliances because of our policy of non alignment but Washington continued to want friendly relations with us. For instance, in 1962 when the Chinese attacked us, the US sent help.

 

   But there were major stumbling blocks. We would not open up our markets to American goods because we wanted to strengthen our economy. The US did not like that.

 

   While India would not sign alliances, Pakistan was happy to do so and became a military and trade ally of the US. American arms flowed into Pakistan and close contacts developed between the two armies.

 

   This was also the era of the Cold War and spies roamed the world bringing down governments and targeting politicians. India always complained about the high level of CIA operations in our country. We know now from memoirs and investigations that while we may have been hysterical in our responses the CIA was certainly very active in India.

 

   The low point in India US relations probably came in 1971-2 when Indira Gandhi went to the White House to ask for help in ending the genocide that was then taking place in East Pakistan. She was ignored and belittled by President Richard Nixon who was then in the process of reaching out to China with Pakistani acting as a go-between. India did not feature in Nixon’s calculations but he felt he had to help his Pakistani middlemen. And so, in 1971, when India and Pakistan went to war America took Pakistan’s side.

 

   Once Nixon was disgraced and booted out, relations improved. Even Ronald Reagan who had set up the world’s largest CIA station in Pakistan to defeat the Russians in Afghanistan had warm relations with Indian leaders.

 

"It’s clear that not only has this shocked Indians who see America as our friend but it has taken our government by surprise."

   In 1991 when India liberalised and welcomed US investment America became even friendlier. And after the Al Qaeda attack on the twin towers America and India both began to see Pakistan as a friend of terrorists and Washington and Delhi became in AB Vajpayee’s term, ‘natural allies.’ This was followed by Manmohan Singh’s nuclear deal which drew the two countries closer.

 

   There could have been some awkwardness when Narendra Modi became Prime Minister because the US had denied him a visa after the Gujarat riots but Modi displayed no rancour and President Barrack Obama went out of his way to welcome Modi into the community of international leaders.

 

   Given this background the current generation of Indians had forgotten the bitterness of the Nixon years and focused on the 50 years of friendship that followed. We assumed that while Presidents would come and go India and America would stay friends.

 

   Our leaders offered logical reasons for the strength of our relationship. We were the two largest democracies in the world. India’s market and production capacity made it a perfect ally for US business. America needed to contain China its only global rival and promoting and helping India would be the best way to do this.

 

  That’s why the events of the Trump years have come as such a shock to Indians. Trump seems to have rejected all the old assumptions. He does not care that India is the world’s largest democracy. As for the Indian market, he wants access on his own terms. Otherwise he will make it harder for Indian exports to reach the US.

 

   On global issues his approach is chaotic. Sometimes he is friends with Russia. Sometimes he isn’t. At present he is determined to punish India for buying Russian oil. He doesn’t like the Chinese much but he sees no role for India as a balancing factor. India’s fabled tech prowess holds no interest for him. America is more focused on AI where India is not a global leader. He doesn’t even care about the thousands of Indian-origin Americans who loyally genuflected to him and who are now the targets of racial abuse from Trump supporters.

 

   It’s clear that not only has this shocked Indians who see America as our friend but it has taken our government by surprise. Nobody in a position of authority expected Trump to become such great pals with the Pakistanis. Perhaps, like many BJP loyalists, they had him pegged as some white version of a Sanghi bigot who hates Muslims. In fact his best friends (the Pakistanis, the Saudis etc.) are Muslims.

 

   We also read Trump wrong by failing to recognise how important appearances are to him. He needs people to agree with him immediately. When he asked us to stop buying Russian oil we hummed and hawed. Eventually he increased the pressure so much that we had to fall in line. On his role in the ceasefire between India and Pakistan the details are sketchy but would Trump keep repeating the claim if there was absolutely nothing to it?

 

   Certainly we should have been shrewder and more careful in our public utterances.

 

   Is there a way out? I am sure there is. Let’s accept that because of America’s clout Trump usually gets his own way; as he has on the ceasefire and on Russian oil. So let’s manage his expectations, get him to lower his demands and to feel respected by India. It won’t be easy given the mess the relationship is in at present. But it’s far from impossible.

 

   Let’s accept also that we only have three more years of this. It’s unlikely that the next President will be anything like Trump and there is certain to be a backlash against Trump’s style and policies. So the fundamental strength of the India-US relationship will show through again once Trump’s term ends.

 

   But to live like this, in constant dread of America, is not just a major foreign policy failure for India. It is also a waste of valuable time.