The NDA landslide in Bihar defies the expectations of all but the most optimistic exit polls.
That the alliance would win was almost a given. It wasn’t just the exit polls that predicted an NDA victory but so did most journalists who toured the state.
Even the Congress leadership had written off Bihar, which may be why so few top Congress leaders expressed much hope as the results began streaming in.
But a landslide of this magnitude? That was never on the cards.
So what did happen? There will be no shortage of explanations now that the verdict is in. But it’s worth remembering that most of the people who will now tell you how the NDA pulled it off had no clue that anything like this would happen.
There are several extraordinary features to this election. The first is the record turnout. In most democratic societies (including India) a large turnout is a symptom of voter anger. People come out to vote in larger numbers than usual when they are disappointed by the performance of governments and want to vote them out. In this case, many more voters than normal seem to have lined up at the booths to endorse what the government has done. This is virtually unprecedented.
The second is the women’s vote. All surveys have always suggested that Nitish Kumar is the preferred choice of female voters. This time the Election Commission revealed that more women had voted than ever before (and in most constituencies female voters outnumbered men) and exit polls suggested that most of them had voted for Nitish Kumar as always.
But why has female support for Nitish, always high, increased so dramatically this time? One answer is that the handouts that began just before the election delighted women voters. But is this enough of an explanation?
The third extraordinary thing about this result is that it has turned all the rules about voter behaviour on their head. The conventional wisdom is that if a government fails to improve the lot of voters, it will be punished.
Bihar is India’s poorest state. Despite some developmental initiatives in recent years it has the lowest per capita income in all of India. In Maharashtra for instance per capita income is Rs 2.89 lakh. In Bihar on the other hand it is as low as Rs 32000.
| "The most popular explanation for the results is that Bihar still votes on the basis of caste. The NDA got its caste arithmetic right and won." |
Unemployment is a huge problem. There is clear discontentment among unemployed young Biharis and many are forced to migrate to other states to find work. Given this economic gloom you would expect voters to turn against the government. In fact Nitish Kumar who has presided over this economic disaster for 20 years has been re-elected by a landslide.
And the fourth astonishing feature is the success of Nitish himself. I don’t want to be unkind about his mental and physical health but it is probably fair to say he seems less energetic and healthy than Joe Biden was when he was forced out of the Presidential race.
And yet, none of this seems to worry the voters of Bihar who have re-elected him by a landslide.
The most popular explanation for the results is that Bihar still votes on the basis of caste. The NDA got its caste arithmetic right and won. The MGB was seen as being so Yadav dominated that it put other castes off.
All of this is possible. But what does it tell us about the future of Bihar? If its voters are prepared to put aside every other factor and to vote only on the basis of identity politics then can it ever progress economically? Or will it remain India’s poorest state?
There are some signs that it could change. An exit poll by Axis which predicted an NDA victory also discovered that younger voters were more concerned about prosperity and jobs (or the lack of both) than the middle aged and older voters. At the next election when the younger voters grow in numbers this may alter the results.
Another change is also inevitable. The two parties that dominate Bihar politics grew out of the Mandal phenomenon of the 1990s. Of the two leaders who have dominated caste based politics in Bihar since then, Laloo Yadav has effectively retired. Nitish will probably follow suit by the next election.
So Bihar will enter a new era of politics? Will the post Laloo-Nitish era see a change in emphasis? Will a new generation of voters focus on Bihar’s economic problems?
And will the BJP, already such a major force in Bihar politics, be able to play its own kind of identity politics, substituting caste with religion?
It bears watching.
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