Modi needs a new formula

Now that we have had enough time to settle down and look at the last Indian general election relatively dispassionately, we need to ask ourselves:

Has anything really changed?

 

Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term going to be just like the second? Has the Bharatiya Janata Party’s failure to reach the numbers he so confidently expected diminished his ability to rule? Or is it going to be government as usual?

 

   I reckon that the answers are more complicated than most political parties are ready to acknowledge. Here are some of the consequences of the election results that are already apparent.

 

The end of the dream

 

Much of the PM’s power came, not from any official authority, but from the view, held by many people (and most strongly by Modi himself) that he was now a force of nature, even if he was not (as he suggested) entirely “biological”.

 

   Many people in government, administration, judiciary and media believed that for the rest of their lives, Modi would be PM. Therefore, resistance was futile. Everyone had to adjust to the reality of a new India run exactly as the BJP wanted.

 

   You can attribute the willingness of the media to jump into the government’s godi to its conviction that as the Opposition had no chance, there was no point in paying any attention to it. India has a free press, in theory. But because the government so tightly controls what appears on TV and is so touchy about anything that appears in print, media owners (and sadly, too many journalists) decided that it was far safer and easier to perform tricks for the entertainment of the ruling elite than it was to report the news fairly.

 

   This is not an unprecedented phenomenon. By 1976, Indira Gandhi’s Emergency regime found it no longer had to bother to censor the press. The media fell in line because they believed that this was how things would be from now on. As LK Advani memorably stated, the press was asked to bend, but it chose to crawl.

 

   That phase ended in 1977 when the Congress lost the election. This time around, the BJP has not lost the election. But the chances of Modi going on forever have reduced. It is possible that he might well lose the next election.

 

   This realisation has affected not just the media but also obedient civil servants and police officers who never considered that they might have to answer to another boss one day. The laws of contempt prevent me from saying much more, but I am sure that some elements in the judiciary have come to a similar conclusion.

 

   Of course, Modi is still a powerful PM. But he is not the Once and Forever Prime Minister.

 

BJP has lost control of social media

 

Much of the BJP’s popularity over the last dozen or so years came from its mastery of social media and its ability to mould public opinion. That began to collapse even before the results were out due to many factors.

 

   When the legacy/mainstream media turned into performing monkeys, the internet took over the role the legacy media should have played. News sites, YouTube channels, Facebook and Twitter successfully challenged the official narrative and hammered away at the same theme — the Emperor’s new clothes did not actually exist.

 

"Rahul is not yet the alternative. But the days when he could be dismissed are over."

   It was expected that when it returned for a third term, the BJP would find ways of regulating critical online content to its advantage. It may still try to do that. But, after these results, that will be much more difficult.

 

The agencies are still around

 

Some of the Opposition’s celebrations are premature. The government still has total control of the agencies and can continue to use them to target Opposition figures. It can continue to use laws that not only treat accused persons as guilty until proven innocent but also allow people to be kept in prison for long periods of time without any convincing evidence being presented.

 

   Only two things could change that situation. First, if the government decides that the reliance on the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) is now becoming counter-productive and that nobody believes the official narrative that the Opposition is full of crooks while the BJP is full of angels.

 

   The second is if the judiciary begins to take all the stuff about personal liberty that regularly features in the Chief Justice’s speeches seriously and does not take the line that jail is the rule and that bail is the exception.

 

   Will that happen? We shall have to wait and see.

 

Opposition is no longer a joke

 

One of the BJP’s greatest achievements was turning Rahul Gandhi into a joke figure, a bumbling Pappu who hardly matched up to the Olympian status of the PM.

 

   It would be foolish to deny that Modi is still more popular than Rahul Gandhi. But no objective person treats Rahul as a joke any longer. Rahul made many mistakes over the last decade as we have all pointed out. But unlike so many other politicians, he seems to have learned from his mistakes. He is now finally seen as a credible challenger, as a man who speaks clearly about the issues (Manipur, for instance) that the PM has ducked. When he speaks in Parliament, the BJP looks rattled. They are not laughing any longer.

 

   Rahul is not yet the alternative. But the days when he could be dismissed are over.

 

The allies are stronger than ever

 

People who thought Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu would be content with a few ministerships at the Centre misunderstood their motivations. Both CMs don’t really care about things like that. They want money — lots of it — for their states. And they want so much money that it is certain to antagonise neighbouring states and risks casting the PM as a hostage who has to keep the payments coming if he is to survive.

 

   Modi will accede to most of their demands — it is either that or the end of the government. But with each special package for say, Andhra, he will seem less and less in control.

 

Modi needs a new formula

 

When the country went to polls, the BJP had three selling propositions. The first was the PM’s own charisma. The second was the party’s record of governance. And third was Hindutva.

 

   All three now need to be rethought.

 

   Modi is still the most popular leader in India, but his popularity is not enough to win a parliamentary majority for his party. The BJP’s record of governance was already being questioned because of rural distress and urban unemployment. But now, each day brings some new dismal headlines — a train accident, collapsing airport, an exam papers scandal etc. It is clear that the BJP can no longer go to the country asking for votes on the basis of governance alone.

 

   And finally, what of Hindutva? It appeals to the faithful, of course. But it has also reached a saturation point. The underlying message of these election results is: Give us jobs, give us hope; don’t just feed us talk of temples. Don’t try and win elections only by telling us how bad Muslims are and how they are coveting our buffaloes.

 

Is the situation beyond recovery?

 

No, it isn’t. The BJP has more going for it than any other party. It can easily get its act together. But before that, it has to first recognise where it went wrong. And figure out how it allowed that to happen.

 

   Only then can the recovery begin.